Real-Time Nowcasting of Nominal GDP Under Structural Breaks

نویسندگان
چکیده

برای دانلود باید عضویت طلایی داشته باشید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Real time detection of structural breaks in GARCH models

A sequential Monte Carlo method for estimating GARCH models subject to an unknown number of structural breaks is proposed. Particle filtering techniques allow for fast and efficient updates of posterior quantities and forecasts in real time. The method conveniently deals with the path dependence problem that arises in these types of models. The performance of the method is shown to work well us...

متن کامل

Nowcasting Gdp in the Euro Area

This paper compares the mixed-data sampling (MIDAS) and mixed-frequency VAR (MFVAR) approaches to model speci…cation in the presence of mixed-frequency data, e.g., monthly and quarterly series. MIDAS leads to parsimonious models based on exponential lag polynomials for the coe¢ cients, whereas MF-VAR does not restrict the dynamics and therefore can su¤er from the curse of dimensionality. But if...

متن کامل

Methods for Pastcasting, Nowcasting and Forecasting Using Factor-MIDAS with an Application to Real-Time Korean GDP *

We discuss a variety of recent methodological advances that can be used to estimate mixed frequency factor-MIDAS models for the purpose of pastcasting, nowcasting, and forecasting. In order to illustrate the uses of this methodology, we introduce a new real-time Korean GDP dataset, and carry out a series of prediction experiments, using a two step approach. In a first step, we estimate common l...

متن کامل

Seasonal Unit Root Tests Under Structural Breaks

In this paper, several seasonal unit root tests are analysed in the context of structural breaks at known time and a new break corrected test is suggested. We show that the widely used HEGY test as well as an LM variant thereof are asymptotically robust to seasonal mean shifts of finite magnitude. In finite samples, however, experiments reveal that such tests suffer from severe size distortions...

متن کامل

Nominal GDP Targeting for Developing Countries

Interest in nominal GDP (NGDP) targeting has come in the context of large advanced economies. Developing countries are better suited for it, however, in light of big supply shocks and terms of trade shocks, such as monsoon rains and oil import price shocks in the case of India. Under annual inflation targeting (IT), the full impact of adverse supply shocks is felt as lost real GDP. NGDP targeti...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: SSRN Electronic Journal

سال: 2014

ISSN: 1556-5068

DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2691693